McCain's Aggressive Turn

Nate Silver seems to have a similar opinion to mine.

But he focuses on the "aggressive negative turn" the McCain campaign is about to take. Essentially, he wonders if negative ads will result in a "net gain" for McCain ... seeming to lean towards "no":

For one thing, increasing numbers of middle class Americans may already have decided that Barack Obama is their home team. One of the more powerful dynamics during the first Presidential debate is that Obama, in the first 15 minutes of the proceedings, pointed to himself and said, "Hey! Middle Class! I'm your guy!". McCain did not mention the middle class, instead reverting to traditional Republican talking points about supply-side economics. From there forward in that debate, dial testers reacted poorly when McCain attacked Obama, or appeared to be contemptuous of him.

If this is the case, however -- and it very well could be -- then this election is over. If the middle class had decided that Barack Obama is their guy, then he's going to win. So assume for a moment that there remain a sufficient number of persuadable voters to provide McCain with a prospective path toward victory.

The coup-de-grace is, of course, statistical: