The New Contract on America

After the 2006 midterm elections, my prediction was that Barack Obama would run against Newt Gingrich for the presidency this year. Roberk Novak reports today that I may simply have gotten the year wrong:

Gingrich is far from a unanimous or even a consensus choice to run for president in 2012. But there is a strong feeling in Republican ranks that he is the only leader of their party who has shown the skill and energy to attempt a comeback quickly.

Even one of his strongest supporters for president in 2012 admits it is a "very risky choice." But Republicans are in a desperate mood after the fiasco of John McCain's seemingly safe candidacy.

Republicans appear chastened by the failure of seeking moderate, independent and even Democrat votes. They are ready to try going back to the "old-time religion."

Strikingly, the GOP seems to have "learned" the lesson that they were not conservative enough. As I've mentioned before, generational demographics make this a serious mis-reading of the outcome.


At any rate, this will be fun to watch.

Drilling Down

All the interesting breakdowns of Tuesday's results are starting to pop up.

Mark Newman provides a nice collection of maps and cartograms for both 2004 and 2008:

In the end, he argues that a more nuanced view is better:

For the more demographic driven geeks, Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State provides some interesting trendlines. It's clear that young people are moving left:

And so is the electorate:

The Genius of Our President-Elect

I thought that I might experience post-election depression due to the lack of an outlet for my hope and enthusiasm once the campaign goal was reached. As if on cue, I received the following email from the Obama campaign last night:

*************************************
Marina --
I'm about to head to Grant Park to talk to everyone gathered there, but I wanted to write to you first.

We just made history.

And I don't want you to forget how we did it.

You made history every single day during this campaign -- every day you knocked on doors, made a donation, or talked to your family, friends, and neighbors about why you believe it's time for change.

I want to thank all of you who gave your time, talent, and passion to this campaign.

We have a lot of work to do to get our country back on track, and I'll be in touch soon about what comes next.

But I want to be very clear about one thing...

All of this happened because of you.

Thank you,

Barack
**************************************

This short note says a lot in both its words and tone. Rather than proclaiming victory or touting Obama's achievement as an individual, the message emphasizes the success of a (huge) group effort and capitalizes on the network built during the campaign to keep us engaged in the "work to do to get our country back on track."

I can't wait to continue to help Obama as he transitions from my candidate to my president. Service is the new flag pin. Brilliant.

Tracking the Data

The Huffinton Post has offered a Guide For Watching Election Night Results. It's worth poking around here, 'cause there are a lot of useful links to electoral and other maps, including the increasingly popular and aesthetically pleasing closing time map (taste the rainbow!). Based on what I've read about the questionable reliability of exit polling, I'm a bit confused as to why Team Huffington has given so much credence to this "data," but there's lots of other good stuff to peruse, too.

The first polls close in 16 minutes!

The Truth from Philly

Fox News reports on the reality of election monitor "intimidation" in Philly:

At best, this is a non-story.  At worst, it's a reflection of the honest efforts by poll workers in Philly to fight back against the GOP voter-suppression effort.  Turnout in Philly may very well determine the outcome in PA.

Andrew Sullivan's Closing Argument

Sullivan has a great summary of what's at stake in this election:

These mistakes were compounded - and in large part created - by what I believe will one day be seen as the core event of the last eight years: the collapse of constitutional order and the rule of law fomented in a mixture of hubris and laziness by the president himself. It is now indisputable that the president and vice-president of the United States engineered a de facto coup against the constitution after 9/11, declaring themselves above any law, any treaty, and any basic moral norm in their misguided mission to rid the world of evil. This blog has watched this process with increasing dismay - and watched several attempts to bring the US back to sanity foiled by a relentless and unhinged vice-president's office.

Cheney and Bush, unlike any presidency in American history, have dangerously pushed constitutional government to the brink of collapse. They did not merely assert a unified executive in which actions and regulations reserved to the executive branch were kept free from Congressional and judicial tampering. That is a perfectly defensible position, especially in wartime. They did not merely act in the immediate wake of an emergency to protect American citizens swiftly - again a perfectly legitimate use of executive power, unhampered by Congress or courts. They declared such power to be unlimited; they asserted also that it was as permanent as the emergency they declared; they claimed their dictatorial powers were inherent in the presidency itself, and above any legal constraints; they ordered their own lawyers to provide retroactive and laughable legal immunity for their crimes; they by-passed all the usual and necessary checks within the executive branch to ensure prudence and legality and self-doubt in the conduct of a war; they asserted that emergency war powers applied to the territory of the United States itself; they claimed the right to seize anyone - anyone, citizen or not - they deemed an "enemy combatant," to hold them indefinitely with no due process and to torture them until they became incoherent, broken, brutalized shells of human beings, if they survived at all. They did this to the guilty and they did this to the innocent. But they also had no way of reliably knowing which was which and who was who. Never before in wartime has the precious, sacred inheritance of free people been treated with such contempt by the leaders of the democratic West.

The entire post is definitely worth reading, but I'll cannibalize one more incisive passage:

It will not be easy. The world will soon remember why it resents America as well as loves it. But until this unlikely fellow with the funny ears and strange name and exotic biography emerged on the scene, I had begun to wonder if it was possible at all. I had almost given up hope, and he helped restore it. That is what is stirring out there; and although you are welcome to mock me for it, I remain unashamed. As someone once said, in the unlikely story of America, there is never anything false about hope. Obama, moreover, seems to bring out the best in people, and the calmest, and the sanest. He seems to me to have a blend of Midwestern good sense, an intuitive understanding of the developing world that is as much our future now as theirs', an analyst's mind and a poet's tongue. He is human. He is flawed. He will make mistakes. His passivity and ambiguity are sometimes weaknesses as well as strengths.

But there is something about his rise that is also supremely American, a reminder of why so many of us love this country so passionately and are filled with such grief at what has been done to it and in its name. I endorse Barack Obama because I will not give up on America, because I believe in America, and in her constitution and decency and character and strength.

And the world needs that America now as much as it ever has. Can we start that healing, that rebirth, tomorrow?

Yes. We. Can.

Rove's Final Map

Rove has Obama winning 338-220:

H/T: Marc Ambinder

Tuesday's Timeline

The Moderate Voice has a summary of what to watch when tomorrow. They also point to a great map of the schedule. Looks like 8PM EDT is a good time to tune in, but we'll start to see a landslide between 7 and 8 -- should there be one.

My EV Projection, Looking Good

Earlier today, I took a stab at predicting the Electoral Vote outcome:

My own map is a blowout. I'm bullish on GA, ND, NC, IN and MO. The final EV counts on that map:

Obama: 393
McCain: 145

At the time I thought it was an optimistic projection, but analysis on Pollster.com suggests that I may have drawn the line at exactly the right spot. Based on an average which adjusts for discrepancies between polls based on the use of cell-phones in a poll's sample, they get the following results for the crucial swing states:

Here's hoping!

Update: Here's my map:

The MSNBC map widget is here.

A Mercenary-Run Election?

Wired has a scary story today:

CIA-linked private military contractor Evergreen Defense & Security Services offered to post sentries at Oregon election offices on Tuesday, "detaining troublemakers" and making sure voters "do not get out of control." 

Update: More on Evergreen:

Evergreen Defense & Security Services is affiliated with Del Smith’s McMinnville-based cargo airline company. It exudes the gung-ho patriotism that is associated with the company founder, a political conservative who enjoys close ties with the federal government and military.

The company’s vision, according to its website, is “to help ensure the God-given right of peace, freedom and democracy to all people.” 

The View from One Day Out

Nate Silver is out with a few new breakdowns. First, his projection map as of Monday morning:

He also generates an interesting histogram showing the relative "biases" of polls including (yellow) and excluding (grey) cell phones in their samples:

And he provides the maps for the most likely McCain upsets:

Obama is +8 and over 50% in this weekend's NBC/WSJ Poll, so it's probably going to be a good day. I suspect the undecideds simply won't break at all, given the reporting I'm seeing on wait times at polling stations -- and some GOTV that I did yesterday. 

Early in the night, watch VA, PA and OH. In a close race, watch CO and NV. My own map is a blowout. I'm bullish on GA, ND, NC, IN and MO. The final EV counts on that map:

Obama:    393

McCain:   145