The Battle for the GOP

Anyone familiar with GOP politics knows that there are two main camps: the cultural conservatives and the small-government conservatives.  Of course, the real problem for the McCain campaign is that neither camp really likes him that much, maverick that he is.  But philosophically, he's essentially a small-government conservative -- with the alarmingly bombastic foreign policy instincts seen in both of the GOP camps, but more often among the cultural conservatives. Whether McCain wins or loses, there is a gigantic civil war brewing in the GOP. Indeed, the battle lines are already being drawn on the post-election terrain. 

The hard-liners (basically, anyone who still argues that Palin was a good pick) seem to be the presumptive inheritors of the post-election GOP. This group consists mostly of cultural conservatives and has been hard at work generating purge lists. This post on Townhall is typical, perhaps more civil than most I've seen:

The new conservative movement will be facing a political opponent that will reveal itself soon to be both multiculturalist and Eurosocialist. We will be engaged in a struggle to the political death for the soul of the country. As I did at the beginning of and throughout the Buckley/Goldwater/Reagan/Gingrich conservative movement, I will try to lend my hand. I certainly will do what I can to make it a big-tent conservative movement. But just as it does in every great cause, one question has to be answered correctly: Whose side are you on, comrade?

As I've mentioned before, this knee-jerk purging has put the GOP on the ropes.  In particular, the small government camp has found itself largely without a home. Indeed, many have endorsed Obama -- but don't seem seriously at risk of defecting permanently to Democratic Party (yet).

Aside from the selection of the cabinet, this will be the most interesting story between the election and the inauguration -- possibly much longer. Among the important questions will be:

1. Which camp really is the presumptive flag-bearer of the party?
2. Will the "losing" camp stay on board or jump ship?
3. If the party really does split irreparably, where will the refugees go: to the new (pragmatic) Democratic Party, or somewhere else?

This is coalition building at its finest ... It will be fun to watch.