Monday, October 13, 2008

More on the Bradley Effect

I argued over the weekend that the Bradley Effect was no longer in play -- and that it was being widely misapplied by talking heads.  The folks at First Read go one step further today, suggesting that there may never have been a Bradley Effect:
For every pundit that wants to go on the air and talk (er, bloviate) about the so-called "Bradley Effect," please read this thoughtful analysis by one of the campaign pollsters who actually participated in that famous '82 campaign. Let's not get carried away with this storyline since it is based more in myth than fact. Writes Tarrance: The other reason I reject the Bradley Effect in 2008 is because there was not a Bradley Effect in the 1982 California Governor's race, either. Even though Tom Bradley had been slightly ahead in the polls in 1982, due to sampling error, it was statistically too close to call."
If this got by the great Chuck Todd, then there must be some truth to it.

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