The View from One Day Out

Nate Silver is out with a few new breakdowns. First, his projection map as of Monday morning:

He also generates an interesting histogram showing the relative "biases" of polls including (yellow) and excluding (grey) cell phones in their samples:

And he provides the maps for the most likely McCain upsets:

Obama is +8 and over 50% in this weekend's NBC/WSJ Poll, so it's probably going to be a good day. I suspect the undecideds simply won't break at all, given the reporting I'm seeing on wait times at polling stations -- and some GOTV that I did yesterday. 

Early in the night, watch VA, PA and OH. In a close race, watch CO and NV. My own map is a blowout. I'm bullish on GA, ND, NC, IN and MO. The final EV counts on that map:

Obama:    393

McCain:   145