Iran Roundup, Monday June 22

Time reports that Neda's death may trigger the Shiite 40 day mourning cycle, triggering more violence and more mourning. This was the pattern in 1978-9:

Although it is not yet clear who shot "Neda" (a soldier? pro-government militant? an accidental misfiring?), her death may have changed everything. For the cycles of mourning in Shiite Islam actually provide a schedule for political combat — a way to generate or revive momentum. Shiite Muslims mourn their dead on the third, seventh and 40th days after a death, and these commemorations are a pivotal part of Iran's rich history. During the revolution, the pattern of confrontations between the shah's security forces and the revolutionaries often played out in 40-day cycles.

Meanwhile, scattered unconfirmed reporting (aggregated by Sullivan) puts Rafsanjani at the center of an emerging faction on the Gaurdian Council:

It seems that in a quick poll of the Guardian Counsel by two of their own (Ahmad Khatami and Mohammad Yazdi) some of the members of Qom's rank and file have refused to recognize Ahmadinejad's victory in the elections, which itself is giving rise to speculation that up to 40 members of the Guardian Counsel and authoirties of the Khobregan [I don't know how that has been translated in English] have signed a letter demanding a nullification of the last election results. Rafsanjani is said to have that letter in his possession.

On the other hand, it is said that Ali Khamenei has been relocated from his residence either for security reasons or for treatment. It has even been said that the reason that Rafsanjani's daughter 'Faezeh' was arrested from amongst the demonstrators was to pressure Rafsanjani due to the behind the scenes role that he has been playing.

It is being said that the reason for the coup d'etat is Khamenei's growing health problems and the severity of his lung cancer. His son Mojtaba wanted to keep the role of Supreme Leader in the family and needed the presidential power to be sympathetic and close to home on the issue.

It is said that the experience of the House of Ayatollah Khomeini and specifically, Ahmad Khomeini's experience, had a big role in shaping recent events. They were determined to select the next Supreme Leader prior to the death of Khamenei. This is based on a line in Mousavi's letter to the Supreme Leader saying that the recent events would not only impact the presidency but the foundation of Leadership in the future--changing the Islamic Republic to a monarchy or an Islamic Monarchy.

In another report three other well recognized ayatollahs (Javadi Ameli, Amini and Ostadi) boycotted last week's Friday prayers because supporters of Mesbah Yazdi had come to Qom attending the prayers and were protesting the Counsel.

The three mentioned above have withheld recognition of Ahmadinejad's victory, and have demanded justice for the people who have been attacked in recent events. Ameli went so far as saying about the attacks on the University streets that, "No Muslim would attack the homes and lives of other Muslims; anyone doing so is an outsider (non-Muslim)."

Al Arabiyah reports that they may be planning to replace Khamenei with some kind of "collective leadership":

Religious leaders are considering an alternative to the supreme leader structure after at least 13 people were killed in the latest unrest to shake Tehran and family members of former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, were arrested amid calls by former President Mohammad Khatami for the release of all protesters.

Iran's religious clerics in Qom and members of the Assembly of Experts, headed by Ayatollah Rafsanjani, are mulling the formation of an alternative collective leadership to replace that of the supreme leader, sources in Qom told Al Arabiya on condition of anonymity.