Iran Update

I defer to Fareed Zakaria and Bob Baer:

30 Years in the Wilderness 4

Ta-nahesi Coates perfectly describes the hypocrisy problem facing today's GOP:

The religious right isn't what's wrong with the GOP. It's the pervasive, unthinking, unreflective nationalism. It's the arrogance of thrice-divorced adulterers reaching for the banner of traditional families, and it's the arrogance of men who prosecuted a poorly planned war, on weak intelligence, presuming to lecture us on national security.

Wow! So True.

Baharestan Square Massacre

Reporting suggests there is a massacre ongoing in Baharestan Square.

"I was going towards Baharestan with my friend. This was everyone, not just supporters of one candidate or another. All of my friends, they were going to Baharestan to express our opposition to these killings and demanding freedom. The black-clad police stopped everyone. They emptied the buses that were taking people there and let the private cars go on. We went on until Ferdowsi then all of a sudden some 500 people with clubs came out of [undecipherable] mosque and they started beating everyone. They tried to beat everyone on [undecipherable] bridge and throwing them off of the bridge. And everyone also on the sidewalks. They beat a woman so savagely that she was drenched in blood and her husband, he fainted. They were beating people like hell. It was a massacre. They were trying to beat people so they would die. they were cursing and saying very bad words to everyone. This was exactly a massacre... I don't know how to describe it."

they pull away the dead into trucks - like factory - no human can do this - we beg Allah for save us -

Lalezar Sq is same as Baharestan - unbelevable - ppls murdered everywhere

they catch ppl with mobile - so many killed today - so many injured - Allah Akbar - they take one of us

in Baharestan we saw militia with axe choping ppl like meat - blood everywhere - like butcher - Allah Akbar

If only that were the worst of it:

I just talked to my brother in Tehran. It's awful.

He couldn't go to Baharestan himself, but was very worried for his friends who had gone. Also, he was saying that the state-run TV is broadcasting pictures of people who have been participating in the protests and asking viewers to give information on them. They have also apparently taken pictures in the demonstrations, matched them with the national ID card database and are now rounding people up in the dead of night.

Update: It's every bit as bad as we thought:

The Final Word on the NeoCons

Although I've certainly got plenty to say on the subject, I'll give Rachel Maddow and Chris Hayes the final word on the rediculousness of NeoCon ideology:

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Enough with these jokers.

The Macho-cession

There are good indications that working class men are not prepared for the new economy:

Men are bearing the brunt of the current economic crisis because they predominate in manufacturing and construction, the hardest-hit sectors, which have lost more than 3 million jobs since December 2007. Women, by contrast, are a majority in recession-resistant fields such as education and health care, which gained 588,000 jobs during the same period. Rescuing hundreds of thousands of unemployed crane operators, welders, production line managers, and machine setters was never going to be easy.

So men should learn to be teachers and nurses, right? Of course not ... we should blame feminists!

Irony Watch

Here's Pat Buchanan before his "English only" speech Saturday.



I wonder what a "Conferenece" is.

Iran Roundup, Monday June 22

Time reports that Neda's death may trigger the Shiite 40 day mourning cycle, triggering more violence and more mourning. This was the pattern in 1978-9:

Although it is not yet clear who shot "Neda" (a soldier? pro-government militant? an accidental misfiring?), her death may have changed everything. For the cycles of mourning in Shiite Islam actually provide a schedule for political combat — a way to generate or revive momentum. Shiite Muslims mourn their dead on the third, seventh and 40th days after a death, and these commemorations are a pivotal part of Iran's rich history. During the revolution, the pattern of confrontations between the shah's security forces and the revolutionaries often played out in 40-day cycles.

Meanwhile, scattered unconfirmed reporting (aggregated by Sullivan) puts Rafsanjani at the center of an emerging faction on the Gaurdian Council:

It seems that in a quick poll of the Guardian Counsel by two of their own (Ahmad Khatami and Mohammad Yazdi) some of the members of Qom's rank and file have refused to recognize Ahmadinejad's victory in the elections, which itself is giving rise to speculation that up to 40 members of the Guardian Counsel and authoirties of the Khobregan [I don't know how that has been translated in English] have signed a letter demanding a nullification of the last election results. Rafsanjani is said to have that letter in his possession.

On the other hand, it is said that Ali Khamenei has been relocated from his residence either for security reasons or for treatment. It has even been said that the reason that Rafsanjani's daughter 'Faezeh' was arrested from amongst the demonstrators was to pressure Rafsanjani due to the behind the scenes role that he has been playing.

It is being said that the reason for the coup d'etat is Khamenei's growing health problems and the severity of his lung cancer. His son Mojtaba wanted to keep the role of Supreme Leader in the family and needed the presidential power to be sympathetic and close to home on the issue.

It is said that the experience of the House of Ayatollah Khomeini and specifically, Ahmad Khomeini's experience, had a big role in shaping recent events. They were determined to select the next Supreme Leader prior to the death of Khamenei. This is based on a line in Mousavi's letter to the Supreme Leader saying that the recent events would not only impact the presidency but the foundation of Leadership in the future--changing the Islamic Republic to a monarchy or an Islamic Monarchy.

In another report three other well recognized ayatollahs (Javadi Ameli, Amini and Ostadi) boycotted last week's Friday prayers because supporters of Mesbah Yazdi had come to Qom attending the prayers and were protesting the Counsel.

The three mentioned above have withheld recognition of Ahmadinejad's victory, and have demanded justice for the people who have been attacked in recent events. Ameli went so far as saying about the attacks on the University streets that, "No Muslim would attack the homes and lives of other Muslims; anyone doing so is an outsider (non-Muslim)."

Al Arabiyah reports that they may be planning to replace Khamenei with some kind of "collective leadership":

Religious leaders are considering an alternative to the supreme leader structure after at least 13 people were killed in the latest unrest to shake Tehran and family members of former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, were arrested amid calls by former President Mohammad Khatami for the release of all protesters.

Iran's religious clerics in Qom and members of the Assembly of Experts, headed by Ayatollah Rafsanjani, are mulling the formation of an alternative collective leadership to replace that of the supreme leader, sources in Qom told Al Arabiya on condition of anonymity.

Obama Today

The Iranian government must understand that the world is watching. We mourn each and every innocent life that is lost. We call on the Iranian government to stop all violent and unjust actions against its own people. The universal rights to assembly and free speech must be respected, and the United States stands with all who seek to exercise those rights.

As I said in Cairo, suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. The Iranian people will ultimately judge the actions of their own government. If the Iranian government seeks the respect of the international community, it must respect the dignity of its own people and govern through consent, not coercion.

Martin Luther King once said - "The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice." I believe that. The international community believes that. And right now, we are bearing witness to the Iranian peoples’ belief in that truth, and we will continue to bear witness.

An Open Letter to the NeoCons

I was scanning Memeorandum and came across this opportunistic piece of filth. Obviously this is not the most disgusting thing I've seen all day, but this shameless opportunism in the face of real human tragedy makes me want to vomit. I hope these asshats get face cancer:

The events of the past week in Iran, following the June 12 presidential election there, have been remarkable and hopeful. It's been a moment when one would like a president of the United States--who has, in such moments, a supporting but not an inconsequential role--to rise to the occasion. Barack Obama hasn't. We are therefore put in the position of hoping that the words of an American president are being mostly ignored, that his weakness won't matter, and that the forces of reform or revolution will be able to prevail--as they may--with the support of many in America, if not the president.

More cogently, I've already set up the argument, and I'll let Peggy Noonan knock it down:

That having been said, it's pretty wonderful to see what we're seeing. It is moving, stirring—they are risking their lives over there in a spontaneous, self-generated movement for greater liberty and justice. Good for them. In a selfish and solipsistic way—more on that in a moment—the uprising, as it moves us, reminds us of who we are: lovers of political freedom who are always and irresistibly on the side of the student standing in front of the tank or the demonstrator chanting "Where is my vote?" in the face of the billy club. Good for us.

...

To refuse to see all this as progress, or potential progress, is perverse to the point of wicked. To insist the American president, in the first days of the rebellion, insert the American government into the drama was shortsighted and mischievous. The ayatollahs were only too eager to demonize the demonstrators as mindless lackeys of the Great Satan Cowboy Uncle Sam, or whatever they call us this week. John McCain and others went quite crazy insisting President Obama declare whose side America was on, as if the world doesn't know whose side America is on. "In the cause of freedom, America cannot be neutral," said Rep. Mike Pence. Who says it's neutral?

This was Aggressive Political Solipsism at work: Always exploit events to show you love freedom more than the other guy, always make someone else's delicate drama your excuse for a thumping curtain speech.

Seriously ... face cancer. And I'll set aside my atheism for this one: I hope you rot in Hell! You earned it.

I Welcome Death

More video from today:

The chant:

“I welcome death
I welcome death
But not subjugation
But not subjugation”

This is What Fascism Looks Like

WARNING: A young woman dies in this video.

Tomorrow's the Day

I've often wondered what I would do when my test came. I only hope to have half of this courage and calm:

“I will participate in the demonstrations tomorrow. Maybe they will turn violent. Maybe I will be one of the people who is going to get killed. I’m listening to all my favorite music. I even want to dance to a few songs. I always wanted to have very narrow eyebrows. Yes, maybe I will go to the salon before I go tomorrow! There are a few great movie scenes that I also have to see. I should drop by the library, too. It’s worth to read the poems of Forough and Shamloo again. All family pictures have to be reviewed, too. I have to call my friends as well to say goodbye. All I have are two bookshelves which I told my family who should receive them. I’m two units away from getting my bachelors degree but who cares about that. My mind is very chaotic. I wrote these random sentences for the next generation so they know we were not just emotional and under peer pressure. So they know that we did everything we could to create a better future for them. So they know that our ancestors surrendered to Arabs and Mongols but did not surrender to despotism. This note is dedicated to tomorrow’s children…” - an Iranian blogger, with more courage than most of us will ever know.

Via Sullivan.

The Rooftops of Iran

Hungary, 1956

Last weekend, as I reflected on the role of the US in the Iranian uprising, Hungary 1956 was my first thought. (Iraq 1991 was my second). My conclusion: that we better damn well be willing to go to war with Iran, should we express "support"--at least in any official capacity.

This line of reasoning has finally emerged in response to the standard GOP argument about Obama's "weakness" in this situation. Matt Steinglass:

The support of the US government for the Hungarian uprising in 1956 “could have made a difference” only if the US were prepared to invade Hungary and go to war with the USSR. The US would quickly have lost such a confrontation to the overwhelming Soviet superiority in conventional forces in Europe, and would have risked seeing Soviet tanks roll into Western Europe as well. The US would then have been faced with the decision of whether to launch a nuclear war. President Eisenhower made the correct — the only possible — decision, in declining to intervene in Hungary.

The error in 1956 was on the part of Radio Free Europe, in holding out to Hungarian resisters the false hope that the West would or could intervene on their behalf. It would be similarly cruel and immoral to give Iranian demonstrators the false idea that we in the democratic world can offer them anything more than our sympathy. We can’t. We will not invade Iran, and nothing else we do will have much of an effect on the behavior of a regime fighting to retain its hold on power. The demonstrators in Iran must know that they have to win the struggle for a fair election on their own, and must be prepared to face the consequences of failure. And they do know this. That is precisely what makes them so courageous. It would be stupid and irresponsible of the US to use their struggle as an occasion for ineffectual rhetorical grandstanding, and fortunately President Obama, unlike our last President, seems able to resist the temptation.

Indeed. When you take your president from the 1% smartest people in the country, you will often find him misunderstood by 99%.

This Machine Kills Fascists

Sullivan explains why Iran matters so much to thoughtful politically and technologically aware Americans.

But here's my answer: this is the central event in modern history right now. The forces of democracy have marshalled in Iran for accountability, transparency and fairness. Wherever they marshall, we should stand with them, especially in the blogosphere, where our Iranian brothers and sisters built the foundation for this moment.

Moreover, Iran is at the very heart of the global struggle between the forces of distorted and politicized religious tyranny and the power of real faith and freedom. This struggle was never ours' to impose, however good the intentions. It was always there for the people themselves to grasp. And grasp it they now have - with astounding courage, clarity and calm.

...

This is hopeful enough. But the use of technology to achieve this offers a whole new paradigm for world politics. We saw its power in the Obama campaign, which harnessed a similar spirit in utterly different circumstances. Now it's transofrming the other side of this previously unstoppable conflict.

If you don't think this week has changed the world as much as, possibly more than, the fall of the Berlin Wall, then you aren't paying attention.

Aggregating the Twitter Revolution

Once again, Sullivan is king. His tweet aggregation is first-rate and he seems to be updating it regularly. Here are just the most recent few.

we told everybody to get out and leave dorms. but most of the student got no where to go & no relatives in Tehran.

it looks they are going to attack dorms again! IRG's chopper just passed by Yousefabad. there is noting left to destroy over there!

a state TV employee: Gun shooting sound is heard near Jaame jam building

confirmed by farsi twitters: around 2000 basiji is now standing in front of dorms.

Mousavi supporters are having "Calmness will beat the bullets" placards and standing near TV/Radio station's mosque.

NEWS: Mousavi supporters moving towards IRIB News Network HQ. 8 ppl confirmed killed

more than 150,000 people are demostrating to Tajrish Sq.Basiji forces are ready to attack / in Tehran

they are searching for Dr Yazdi , a political activist

Basij are wearing civilian clothing. Do not mix them up with protestors!!

Police is going to houses and seizing satellite receivers.

Demands from the Green Movement in Iran

Sullivan reports that consensus is being built around a core set of demands:

1. Remove Khamenei from supreme leader because he doesn't qualify as a fair supreme leader

2. Remove Ahmadinejad from president because he took it forcefully and unlawfully

3. Put Ayatollah Montazeri as supreme leader until a review group for the ghanooneh asasi ( "constitution" ) is set up

4. Recognize Mousavi as the official president

5. A goverment by Mousavi and start a reform of the constitution

6. Free all political prisoners without any ifs ands or buts, right away

7. Call off any secret organization such as "gasht ershad"

Photos from Iran

Boston Globe has a gallery of photo-journalism.

Shots Fired

From the Guardian:

Shots have been fired at an opposition rally in Tehran where more than 100,000 Iranians were protesting against the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

An Associated Press photographer saw one person killed when shots were fired from a compound for pro-government militiamen. Several other people appeared to have been seriously wounded in Tehran's Azadi Square. BBC's Persian service quoted an eyewitness saying that four protesters have been killed.

A reporter on Iran's English-language Press TV said: "There has been sporadic shooting out there ... I can see people running here."

Blogging, Politics and the Next Generation in Iran

IRAN: A Nation Of Bloggers from ayrakus on Vimeo.

Today in Tehran

The Telegraph has a good summary of the events overnight:

Iran's reformist presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi has called off a major rally to protest last Friday's election results, amid claims police had been cleared to open fire on protesters.

...

Mr Mousavi's cancellation of the protest came as sporadic disturbances continued around the Iranian capital, and reports circulated of leaked interior ministry statistics showing him as the clear victor in last Friday's polls.

The statistics, circulated on Iranian blogs and websites, claimed Mr Mousavi had won 19.1 million votes while Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won only 5.7 million.

...

Overnight, squads of police and their allies in Iran's basiji gangs, a plain clothes militia made up of civilian hardliners, stormed the campus at the city's biggest university, ransacking dormitories and arresting dozens of students.

And here's a reminder of the best sources I know about:

http://tehranlive.org/
http://www.memeorandum.com/
http://tehranbureau.com/
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/
http://www.michaeltotten.com/
http://twitter.com/IranElection09

Message from Mousavi

Andrew Sullivan gets word from Mousavi via BBC-Farsi:

I AM UNDER EXTREME PRESSURE TO ACCEPT THE RESULTS OF THE SHAM ELECTION. THEY HAVE CUT ME OFF FROM ANY COMMUNICATION WITH PEOPLE AND AM UNDER SURVEILLANCE. I ASK THE PEOPLE TO STAY IN THE STREETS BUT AVOID VIOLENCE

More as I find it.

News from Tehran

The Iranian election this week marks a turning point for an important 21st Century hegemon. After Ahmadinejad declared victory in an election that appears stolen, one of the largest popular reform movements in recent Iranian history spilled onto the streets of Tehran in protest.

The result has been two long days of tension and violence:



More video here.

The good guys can still win this one:

Mir Hossein Mousavi’s, the main reformist rival to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, letter to the important ayatollahs in the holy city of Qom, asking them to protest the fraud and declare it against Islam, has sparked protests by the ayatollahs and clerics as well.

The Association of Combatant Clerics, which consists of moderate and leftist clerics and includes such important figures as former president Mohammad Khatami, Ayatollah Mohammad Mousavi Khoiniha, and Grand Ayatollah Abdolkarim Mousavi Ardabili, issued a strongly-worded statement, calling the results of the election valid.

...

Grand Ayatollah Yousef Saanei, a progressive cleric and a confidante of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, has declared that Mr. Ahmadinejad is not the legitimate president and cooperation with him, as well as working for him, are haraam (against Islam and a great sin). He has also declared that any changes in the votes by unlawful means are also haraam. Several credible reports indicate that he has traveled to Tehran in order to participate in nationwide protests scheduled for Monday (June 18). It is said that he has planned a sit-in in some public place, in order to further protest election fraud. His website has been blocked.

I've been trying to follow here:

http://tehranlive.org/
http://www.memeorandum.com/
http://tehranbureau.com/
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/
http://www.michaeltotten.com/

More as I find it.

Update: Apparently, the government has taken down one of these resources with DoS. Per a recent tweet:

problem w/ site pinpointed: webmaster says the Iranian govt is overloading us
with requests to disable our site: "denial of service attack".

Update 2: Twitter is apparently the single best resource for the latest news. Warning, some of it is hard to read

WTF?!

What is going on with the "intellectual" right?  Here's Krauthammer today:

Not that Obama considers himself divine. (He sees himself as merely messianic, or, at worst, apostolic.) But he does position himself as hovering above mere mortals, mere country, to gaze benignly upon the darkling plain beneath him where ignorant armies clash by night, blind to the common humanity that only he can see. Traveling the world, he brings the gospel of understanding and godly forbearance. We have all sinned against each other. We must now look beyond that and walk together to the sunny uplands of comity and understanding. He shall guide you. 

More on Right-Wing Extremism

Eugene Robinson gets the problem exactly right today in WaPo.  I've bee trying to make the same point since October.  It's OK, though ... I bet we can expect the grassroots right to be grownups about this stuff:

Update: Krugman piles on:

And at this point, whatever dividing line there was between mainstream conservatism and the black-helicopter crowd seems to have been virtually erased.